Friday, May 16, 2014

Sensex rides Modi wave to scale 25,000, trims gain at close

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Benchmark indices ended at new closing highs Friday, but shed much of the intra-day gains despite the BJP-led NDA coalition winning by a much bigger margin than expected. The Sensex closed at 24121.74, up 216.14 points over its previous close after hitting a record high of 25375.63 intra-day high minutes after trading began. The Nifty settled at 7203, up 79.85 points after making a new peak of 7563.50 intra-day. Realty, capital goods, banks, power and oil & gas shares were the best performers, while investors dumped shares of defensive sectors like IT, FMCG and pharma anticipating a shift in money into cyclical stocks. Sectoral indices for IT, FMCG and pharma all closed in the red, underscoring the sudden change in investor preference. In a reminder of the problems still facing the corporate sector, the Supreme Court ordered an interim ban on 26 mines in Odisha operating on second deemed renewals.   Sesa Sterlite (+11 percent), PNB (+7 percent), BPCL (+7 percent), BHEL and DLF (6 percent each) were the star performers of the day. 

Tata Steel topped the list of losers, falling 4 percent as the company sources a big chunk of its iron ore requirements from Odisha. Other big losers in the Nifty included, ITC, Dr Reddy’s, Infosys and HCL Tech, shedding around 3 percent each. IT stocks were hit the hardest as it felt that increased foreign capital flows in the coming days, as a result of NDA victory, would strengthen the rupee and hut the sector’s profitability. Profit booking in the second half of the session caught many investors unawares as they were hopeful of the market retaining gains and even hitting the upper end of the circuit filter. Brokers said they expect equities to be volatile near term, but trending higher. 

Ace investor Ramesh Damani said he expected the bull run to continue on the back of increased retail investor participation in the coming days. “I think we are now perhaps crossing the first stage of a bull market and moving to a more mature second phase of the bull market,” he said in an interview to CNBC-TV18. Most experts shared Damani’s views, saying a stable government at the Centre was likely to change global investor perception about India. “This is a very important endorsement of economic reform; an electorate in India going out and asking for a better growth environment, voting for a administration that has the reputation at the state level for getting things done,” said JP Morgan’s Adrian Mowat, adding, “foreign investors are certainly going to welcome this.” But there were voices of caution as well. “It is important to be realistic about the pace of political and economic change, at least in the nearer term,” said brokerage house HSBC in its note to clients. “The new government will not be able to change things overnight and the recovery in GDP growth will likely prove protracted, possibly even move sideways in the near term until we have measurable progress on reforms and investment projects,” the note added. Among stocks of Gujarat-based companies, key gainers included Adani Enterpriises, Pipavav Defence, Guj State Petro, Gujarat Pipavav, and GNFC, up between 3-6 percent.

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Thursday, May 15, 2014

What will happen if market does hit circuit tomorrow?

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The markets are preparing for a volatile session on Friday and why not? The memories of the triple circuits that were breached five years ago on verdict day 2009 are still fresh on everyone's minds. But stock exchanges and the regulator have been busy shoring up their defences over the last five years. On the 18th of May 2009, history was made not because the UPA was elected into power for a second term, but because that's the day the stock markets hit their upper circuits not once, not twice, but three times. The triggering of the circuit filters on the BSE and NSE forced trading to come to a grinding halt, and the exchanges downed shutters for the rest of the day. But exchanges and the markets regulator are confident history will not repeat itself on Friday. As far as the circuit situation is concerned. And they have good reason to be. Five years ago, the index level for circuit filters was decided at the beginning of the quarter, but today, circuit filters are decided on a daily basis, based on the previous day's closing level for the index. Five years ago, the markets did not have a pre-open auction period of 15 minutes, but today, every time the markets restart, traders go through a 15-minute pre-open auction that requires them to trade based on the delivery of shares. Experts say this pre-open auction will act as a balancer, in case the markets halt after a 10 percent move, and are hence forced to restart.

Here's how that works: If an index moves 10 percent before 1 pm, trading will halt for 45 minutes after which there will be a 15-minute pre-open session followed by regular trading.  If it moves 10 percent after 1 pm, but before 2:30 pm, the markets will shut for 15 minutes and open after another 15-minute pre-open auction. If the 10 percent move happens after 2:30 pm, trading will not halt. Now, if the market moves 15 percent before 1 pm, then trading resumes after a 1 hour 45 minute break, followed by a 15-minute pre-open. If the 15 percent move comes between 1 and 2:30 pm, trading is suspended for 45 minutes, followed by a 15-minute pre-open auction. But should the 15 percent move take place after 2:30pm, the markets will down shutters for the rest of the day. In the event of a 20 percent circuit being triggered, trading will be halted for the remainder of the day. Stock exchanges have already incorporated dynamic circuits for the stocks that form part of the index and derivative segment. If any stock crosses the 9.9 percent mark in either direction, it would need at least 10 trades from multiple unique client codes to push the stock beyond 10 percent. This would be applicable at intervals of every 5 percent, in either direction meaning when the stock crosses a 14.9 percent threshold and then goes on to cross the 19.9 percent threshold. With these safeguards in place, exchanges and the regulator are confident the investing public will have a more stable market environment to participate in on counting day, without fear that the big boys will spoil the party.

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Election results: Sebi, market entities up vigil on stocks

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To ring fence the capital market from possible manipulations against the backdrop of election results tomorrow, Sebi as well as bourses and other market entities have prepared an elaborate vigil mechanism. While market authorities have been already monitoring stock movements very closely since last few days, which saw markets surging to record highs on the back of exit poll and other predictions, they are now mainly focussing on tackling any possible shocks tomorrow and on Monday. The counting of votes for 543 Lok Sabha constituencies will begin tomorrow at 8 am, while clear trends are likely to emerge by afternoon and final results may keep coming out till late evening. The markets would open as per their normal time at 9 am and close at 3.30 pm, leaving scope for impact of the results on Monday as well after weekly trading holidays on Saturday and Sunday. A special team at Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is keeping a close tab on the stock market movements, while another team would also be monitoring the election results as they get announced to understand whether price movements are linked to outcomes in various constituencies, sources said.

According to sources, the stock movement of companies related to Gujarat and many others are being closely watched as they have witnessed huge rallies in recent weeks. Besides Indian market movements, the trends in overseas markets and factors affecting foreign institutional investors are also being monitored almost on a 24/7 basis. Besides, stock exchanges have put in place various circuit filters to stave off excessive volatility in stocks as well as derivatives segments. Brokerages and other market entities are also advising investors to ensure that there are no sudden spurts or falls in the market, while investors are being discouraged from excessive margin exposure. The aim is to ring fence the interest of investors and ensure smooth functioning of the market tomorrow by preventing manipulative activities, sources said. The preparations are being done while keeping in mind the experience of previous times during the day of Lok Sabha poll results.  Apart from tomorrow, market authorities would be keeping a special watch on May 19 (Monday) also to ensure there are no disruptions of any kind. Brokerages have sent out advisories to their clients, while trading exposure based on margins -- the multiples of the cash position that investors are allowed to trade in -- is also being curtailed for intra-day trades. Leading bourses BSE and NSE relaxed the dynamic price bands for stocks that trade in the derivatives segment with effect from May 13. Stock exchanges have a mechanism of dynamic price bands, commonly known as dummy filters or operating range, which prevents acceptance of orders for execution that are placed beyond the price limits set by the bourses. "In the event of a market trend in either direction, the dynamic price bands may be relaxed during the day in coordination with the other exchange," according to similarly worded circulars from the BSE and the NSE. The BJP-led NDA is projected to form the government at the Centre with exit polls tonight giving between 249 and 290 seats to the Narendra Modi-led grouping, which is close to the half-way mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha. The preparations by market authorities have also taken into account their experience during the result day of last Lok Sabha elections. On May 18, 2009 -- the day when results of last Lok Sabha polls were announced -- markets gained so much that trading had to be halted. That date is still known as 'Magic Monday' in stock market as the benchmark index Sensex posted its biggest ever gain of over 2,100 points in just one-minute trade after investors were enthused by a decisive verdict in the then concluded general elections. The experience was another extreme on May 17, 2004, soon after the announcement of 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the markets witnessed the worst-ever bloodbath on concerns of uncertainty over the economic reforms as the then NDA government was voted out of power.

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Contingency plan ready for volatility on result day: Rajan

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The Reserve Bank today said it has put in place contingency plans to infuse liquidity into the system to deal with any possible volatility in markets tomorrow in view of the election results. "We assured the board that we are in discussions with the Finance Ministry and Sebi and we have placed prudential contingency plans to infuse liquidity if needed. We hope that everything will go normally tomorrow when the election results are announced," RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said. He was speaking to reporters after a meeting of central board of the RBI. The BSE benchmark Sensex has rallied over 1500 points in the last five trading sessions while the Rupee closed at nearly 10-month high of 59.29 against the US dollar today. Both the stock and forex markets are expected to remain volatile in view of the announcement of results for the general elections.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram earlier this week asked the regulators to maintain a strict vigil on the volatility in stock markets on the day of poll results. While market authorities have been already monitoring stock movements very closely since last few days, which saw markets surging to record highs on the back of exit poll and other predictions, they are now mainly focusing on tackling any possible shocks tomorrow and on Monday. The counting of votes for 543 Lok Sabha constituencies will begin tomorrow at 8 am, while clear trends are likely to emerge by afternoon and final results may keep coming out till late evening. Exit polls show BJP-led NDA is set to form the government after votes are counted tomorrow. The markets would open as per their normal time at 9 am and close at 3.30 pm, leaving scope for impact of the results on Monday as well after weekly trading holidays on Saturday and Sunday.


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